2009 Free Agents

With the much-anticipated summer of 2010 still more than a year away, I did a little research on who would be available this summer. Below are my picks for the top five UNRESTRICTED free agents (in no particular order):

- BEN GORDON:

The positives - We all know what B.G. can do: score. And he does it well. Unlike many big-time scorers, however, Gordon seems to save it for when it matters most. Ever since he came into the league, he has been amongst the leaders in fourth quarter scoring, and he didn't disappoint in this year's playoffs. B.G. dropped 40-plus in a back-and-forth game two against the Celtics. His fourth quarter heroics were dwarfed by Ray Allen's game-winning three, but they weren't overlooked by people like myself. Dude's a gamer.

The negatives - We have also come to know B.G.'s shortcomings. At 6'3", you'd like him to be more of a distributor (3.0 APG for his career). Although he's stout for his height, he isn't exactly a lockdown defender and can be taken advantage of in the post by bigger guards. In reality, outside of scoring, Gordon doesn't do much to fill up a box score.

The good fits - Utah, Phoenix, Chicago, any bad team where he can shoot 20+ times per game.

I think Gordon's game is better suited for the open court style of play that the West offers. Utah is going to lose a lot of scoring if Boozer packs his bags, and Gordon's defensive shortcomings could be masked by the physicality of Deron Williams. In Phoenix, B.G. could continue in his shoot-first ways with Nash dishing the rock, and Gentry's commitment to NO defense would be ideal for this volume shooter. Chicago grew up in the playoffs (despite the narrow loss), but they need to continue to surround the unselfish Derrick Rose with shooters. With Hinrich's departure probable, keeping Gordon could be a priority for Management. I don't think I need to explain why B.G. would flourish for a subpar team.

Has B.G. had enough in Chi-Town?

- ANDRE MILLER
The positives - Miller brings all the intangibles you want out of your point guard: leadership, poise, unselfishness. He's pretty physical for his size and a good passer. He's an accurate foul shooter in late-game situations and has been durable throughout his career. He's always amongst the league leaders in steals and rebounds well for a point guard (4.5 RPG in 08-09).

The negatives - Miller turned 33 this spring. He probably doesn't make much sense for a rebuilding team, as his window of peak play is behind him. He also has a hard time keeping up with younger, quicker point guards (e.g. Rondo, Paul, Parker, Harris). For a point guard, he is a dreadful three point shooter (28% in 08-09). As such, any team looking to pick him up needs to be equipped with shooters to surround him with.

The good fits - Portland, LA Lakers.
Miller would complement Portland's young guns perfectly and would provide veteran experience that the team is currently lacking. With Rudy Fernandez and the impending return of Martell Webster, the Blazers have the shooters in place that Miller needs. Miller could create more off the dribble than D-Fish, which would take some pressure off Kobe. I don't think the Lakers would be concerned with Miller's age, as they have the pieces in place to compete for NBA Championships NOW.


- CARLOS BOOZER (Player Option, but does anyone doubt he will take it?)
The positives - Boozer is a tireless offensive rebounder and a proven scorer. He has a good work ethic and is a pretty heady player (courtesy of Coach K). Boozer's ability to hit the 18-footer with regularity causes matchup nightmares, and his quickness enables him to defend the pick-and-roll.

The negatives - C.B. has a tough time guarding taller players and doesn't block many shots for a power forward. He has been somewhat injury-prone in his short career. Clearly, the Jazz see him as expendible as they have all but turned over the keys to Paul Millsap.

The good fits - New Jersey, Atlanta.
New Jersey has its center of the future in Brook Lopez (sigh), but they lack consistent play from the power forward position. If Carter is shipped, Boozer and Harris would be a good scoring tandem. In Atlanta, Boozer would enable Josh Smith to play more minutes at his natural position (small forward), Horford could slide to Center, and Zaza Pachulia could slide down the bench. Although Horford is a decent scorer, it is not his natural strength. Boozer would take some pressure off Joe Johnson and Horford could focus on being a beast at the defensive end and on the boards.


RASHEED WALLACE
The positives - Sheed can stretch the defense with his three-point shooting. He's also a very underrated defender and a decent rebounder. When he is focused, there is only one player in the league who can stop him from scoring from the mid-post (Garnett). Plus, he will put fans in the seats with his childish antics.

The negatives - Often times, I wonder if Sheed even cares. He is one of the most gifted players in the league, but seems content to stand on the three-point line most of the time. His antics, while they draw headlines (good or bad), can be a huge distraction. Even though he has great touch from the floor, his free throw shooting has been suspect at times.

The good fits - San Antonio, Dallas, Golden State.
San Antonio's window is closing quickly, but Sheed would fit in nicely with what they try to do at the defensive end. His ability to stretch the defense would give Duncan more room to operate in the post. Dallas is one- or two- pieces away from being great, and Sheed could be just the lift they need. Just make sure he isn't rooming with Josh Howard on road trips. Don Nelson has shown the ability to harness the energy of hot-headed players (see Stephen Jackson). In Golden State, Sheed could play the uptempo style and fire 5-7 threes per game without getting benched.

-LAMAR ODOM
The positives - Odom possesses the rare combination of size, athleticism, and court vision that GM's drool over. He probably has the best handles of any 6'10 player in the league, and is one of the better rebounders in the game. Odom can create matchup nightmares when he is playing at the three spot, towering over his defenders. L.O. has a great touch around the basket.

The negatives - At times, Odom disappears on the court. The rap sheet says that he takes plays off, which I can't necessarily argue with. Odom is a mediocre (at best) outside shooter, and his free throw shooting is especially a problem late in games. When playing the three spot, he can create congestion on the court as he is best suited around the paint. His point guard mentality can lead to careless turnovers at times.

The good fits - Cleveland, Houston.
L.O. would flourish playing alongside King James. He is a significant upgrade from Varejao/B. Wallace at the offensive end, and would add the athleticism that the Cavs need (outside of James, of course). Odom does well in situations where he plays the second- (or third) fiddle on offense. Houston is another team that needs to get more athletic. They already have guards who can knock down the three and power forwards who can step out and hit jumpers. If Artest leaves this summer, Houston will need a versatile player like Odom at both ends of the floor.


Didn't make my list: Mike Bibby (yawn), Ason Kidd (too old), Allen Iverson (cancerous), Antonio McDyess (too old), Ron Artest (too crazy), Shawn Marion (I think he'll stay in TOR), Al Harrington (unimpressed), Jermaine O'Neal (too injury-prone)

Double Standard, No?

Well, here we go again. Another NFL offseason has passed, and we have witnessed 7 more months with player arrests, shootings, and the now-standard prima donna behavior. We've had greed-motivated holdouts, domestic disputes, drug abuse, and Vegas fun gone awry. No, this offseason hasn't been much different than any other offseason in recent memory, and that's what makes it even more disturbing. Even worse is that the league still doesn't have much of a PR problem by most accounts.

Is it just me, or is there a serious double-standard in the way the public perceives the NFL versus the public perception of other professional sports? Maybe I'm imagining things, but I still feel as if the NBA is the league with the most perceived problems -- despite the undeniable fact that NFL players are making the most headlines for the wrong reasons. The NBA has been widely acclaimed the "thug" league ever since the brawl at the Palace, despite Stern's tireless efforts to clean out the cobwebs. Meanwhile, NFL players are filling court rooms and prison cells year-in and year-out and we barely bat an eye. In 2006 alone, at least 35 NFL players were arrested on various charges.


Shawn Merriman gets busted for roids, and we have already forgiven and forgotten. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are accused of taking roids (and rightfully so), and their careers will forever be tainted in the public eye. Ron Artest has been arrested, what, once? That's four times less than Chris Henry or Adam "Don't Call me PacMan" Jones, yet he is portrayed as just as big of a villain in most sports circles. NFL guys like Jones and Henry are getting second, third, fourth, even fifth chances to "change," and (many of us) are okay with it. Don't get me wrong -- it's us fans (myself included) who are waiting with open arms when these prodigal children come home. We're the ones who excuse the behavior and fill the stands chanting their names their first game back from suspension.


So why do we examine this league and its players under a different light than other sports? Is it because football is a violent sport, and we assume violence off the field is an inevitable by-product of productivity on it? Is it because we truly love the game of football more than any other sport and we're willing to turn a blind eye on its imperfections? Maybe it's a combination of both.

I know that I, for one, will be watching Week 1 intently and won't be dwelling on any of the questionable behavior we've become so accustomed to. I'll probably forget about PacMan's five arrests if he takes a punt to the house. Does this mean I don't care? Should I care?

Profit-Sharing in the NBA?

In making my daily visit to FreeDarko, I came across this tasteful morsel (FreeDarko Post). The post in reference was aimed at analyzing Lebron's interest in playing overseas and the potential impact it could have on the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). It got me contemplating the NBA and its current compensation structure and how this structure could be revamped in the near future.

The fact NBA stars Lebron, Kobe, & DWade have shown interest (regardless of their sincerity) in playing overseas has to have NBA heads talking. In an era where "Show me the Money" is a prevaling theme and stars (e.g. Lebron) are as much aspiring businessmen as they are aspiring NBA legends, this talk should come as no surprise. Sure, the Olympics are here, making the obligatory "I'd play overseas" statement en vogue. I get that. But these stars aren't idiots, or they're at least getting advice from people who aren't idiots. There is a load of untapped money & fame overseas, and basketball is quickly gaining popularity in these markets.

The Motivations of Superstars have Changed over the Years

If Josh Childress can become "the highest-paid player in Euroleague history," making ~$7M/year, what kind of money would be thrown at Lebron or Kobe? Lebron half-jokingly threw out an asking price of $50M/yr, but is that number really as ridiculous as it sounds? I'm not so sure. I am sure that there are international teams that would be willing to outbid NBA franchises, with salary cap limitations in place and all. Who's to say Lebron the businessman wouldn't take an offer of, say, $40M plus some sort of ownership stakes to play in China? If not James, how about a Lamar Odom-type player? A player like Odom could never be the face of the NBA but he could be the face of Croatian basketball or its equivalent. If a Croatian team threw $15M, profit-sharing, and endless endorsement possibilities at Odom, would he take it? I don't know if Odom would, but I'm fairly certain some players would.

Is this where international basketball is headed? In recent years, the migration of international stars to the NBA has been the trend. As interest grows overseas, who's to say the trend won't be NBA stars migrating to international leagues? While the NBA still has the premier competition, competition is no longer the primary movitator for all professional athletes. I could particularly see veterans who had reached the pinnacle of NBA fame & fortune making the move overseas. It would only take the movement of a few players (e.g. Lebron and/or Kobe) for an exodus of sorts to gain momentum.

The Chinese Love Them Some Kobe

So, assuming more players follow Childress' lead and move overseas, how would the NBA respond? If it were only a few players and none were All-Star caliber talents, Stern probably wouldn't bat an eyelash. If it were a handful of players and one or more of those players were cogs in the NBA's marketing machine, Stern would be sweating bullets. As soon as Greece, Italy, China, and Germany start flashing the dough, Stern and his cronies will have to take a hard look at the NBA's current compensation structure. This will be an absolute must-do if the NBA wants to continue to monopolize the world's best basketball talent.

In observing the Stern regime, I'm fairly certain he won't stand pat if basketball's balance of power begins to shift away from the U.S. Stern, in spite of all of his annoying tendencies, is an innovator of sorts. To date, he has embraced the globalization movement wholeheartedly -- and while you could argue that MLB had an influx of foreign players long before the NBA did, basketball is now leaps and bounds ahead of its American sports counterparts in terms of international appeal growth rate. It should be noted, however, that this was a calculated embrace. The progressive approach Stern has taken with regards to globalization has been aimed at growing the NBA's appeal (and revenue) overseas. I don't think he will be so eager to embrace the globalization of basketball if international leagues begin reaping the benefits at the expense of his NBA.

Without totally destroying the salary cap system in place, profit-sharing could be a solution. Lebron and others have already shown interest in participating in team ownership, so why not?While in the past I had been an advocate of the CBA, I'm beginning to think it may be too restrictive. The argument that players are overpaid can certainly be made, but foreign leagues (without salary caps or profit-sharing restrictions) will be able to overpay them even more. Furthermore, NBA franchises generate enormous amounts of revenue from ticket & merchandise sales. While marketing has improved and team management & coaches should be compensated for assembling & developing talented, cohesive, winning rosters it's hard to argue that the players are not primarily responsible for these revenues. Take the Cavs as an example: aside from winning the lottery and making the biggest no-brainer #1 selection ever, they have done virtually nothing to improve the franchise. In fact, they have probably been one of the worst-run franchises in the NBA in the past few years. Lebron has quite literally carried that franchise on his back. Players like Lebron transcend the game and sell merchandise, tickets, and the game's overall popularity on their own.

In any other type of American business, the compensation for Lebron-types would be more closely related to the overall success of the businesses they were employed by. They would get commissions, bonuses, and/or huge allotments of stock options. All of these forms of compensation reward the employee (or player) when their contributions positively impact the business's bottom line. Rather than adding variable (and minimal) compensation to be paid if the team makes the playoffs or wins the championship, couldn't some fraction of player compensation be tied to ticket sales, jersey sales, and overall profitability? Maybe not for all players, but at least for the players with the "franchise" label?

I realize this could get tricky really fast. Employing a profit-sharing system in the NBA would inevitably expose the league to the problems experienced by the MLB. Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago would have bigger bargaining chips for the superstars due to the relative profit potential advantages in those markets. Small-market teams like the Trailblazers wouldn't be able to rely upon good management alone to build competitive rosters. The NBA has kept its structure intact to avoid these types of disparities. To be quite honest (even as a Laker fan), I'm not sure I'd be happy if profit-sharing brought these inequities with it.

So what, if anything, should be done if NBA players start bailing to play overseas? Would the assurance of the best players remaining in the league outweigh the consequences of profit-sharing? I'm torn. If this posting hasn't thoroughly confused you, I'd love to hear your thoughts...

The Artest Factor

I'm calling the Ron Artest trade the most intriguing move of the offseason. It will be very interesting to see how it turns out. It all depends on whether we see Good Ron or Bad Ron...

What to expect if Good Ron shows up

By "Good Ron", I am referring to the player who came to Sacramento midway through the 2005-06 season. The Ron who told Rick Adelman (coincidence?) that he would lead the Kings to the playoffs despite their longshot hopes at the time -- and delivered. The Ron who is just plain nasty and scares opposing offenses with his maniacal defense and physicality. The Ron who is comfortable playing in the shadows of superstars.

This is a side of Artest that we haven't seen much of, but he has been trying to make believers out of all of us ever since he was dealt. I was pleasantly surprised by his reaction to Yao Ming's public statements of concern regarding his character and the Detroit brawl. He's been referring to himself as a "Yao Ming Soldier" in interviews, and went out of his way to sort things out with the Chinese giant the day after Yao's remarks went public. He even hinted at the possibility of traveling to Beijing to support Yao in the Olympics this summer.

If Good Ron emerges and remains focused throughout the season the Rockets could be scary. In my book, they'd have a chance to dethrone the other Texas teams and compete for home court advantage in the West. At worst, he would help end McGrady's oh-for in playoff series. At best, he could help T-Mac shed his reputation as a perennial choker.

Even if Yao went down via another injury, the Rockets would be a tough out in the playoffs due to their defense alone. Put Ron with all-defensive player Shane Battier and a 67-year-old Mutombo, and there would be no easy baskets. In the Finals, we saw just how much of an impact stingy defense can have.

What to Expect if Bad Ron Shows Up

By "Bad Ron", I am referring to the bipolar sideshow that has earmarked the majority of Artest's career. The Ron who flirted with retirement to pursue a hip-hop career. The Ron who leaped into the stands and duked it out with Piston fans. The Ron who has a tendency to be at the center of domestic disputes.

Ron has always said that he is "misunderstood." No argument here. The majority of basketball fans are at least somewhat sane -- of course we don't understand the psychological or behavioral oddities of a lunatic. I know for certain Yao Ming doesn't understand him.

This oft-seen side of Artest has me worried. How can I expect him to mesh with the Gentle Giant and the emotional, softspoken McGrady? I won't be surprised if this whole thing backfires in an ugly way. If Bad Ron shows up, at best they are a fringe playoff team in the West with some serious issues heading into the playoffs. At worst, Ron goes Ricky Davis and poisons any chemistry this team has built. Meaning: no playoffs & no players that want to stay around to witness the carnage.

My Prediction

I've always believed that winning is the best medicine for any individual player's problems. For this reason, I think Good Ron is going to show up. As a Laker fan, I advocated an Odom for Artest deal. The Rockets have a championship-caliber roster, and Artest knows it. Despite his numerous character flaws, he is a fierce competitor who relishes the opportunity to win. The Kings sucked, and Artest knew that, too. Despite his god-given ability, he is an immature man who relishes the opportunity to make headlines (a la Dennis Rodman).

I see Ron's situation in Houston similar to Dennis' situation in Chicago. They are (and were) at the peak of their pre-madonna status, but nobody ever questions (or questioned) the toughness they brought to the table. For the first time since playing under Chuck Daly, Rodman respected his coach. Artest has played for Adelman before, and has nothing but good things to say about him.

In closing, I think the Ron Artest deal is going to work out for the Rockets. Of course, all bets are off if they start off slowly. If so, we are in for a circus, and the West is still safe for the other contenders' taking.

Should the Sixers Re-Sign Iggy?

Rumor has it Andre Iguodala is asking for a 6-year, $75M deal. Is this too much? No way, says I. He's still young and has a great all-around game: 20pts, 5reb, 5ast, 2stl. If the Sixers don't agree to this offer, or something similar, another team will snatch him up.

Anyone who thinks this is too much money needs to examine recent history on free agent contracts. $12.5M per is his market value.

Naysayers may argue that he's not good enough to build your team around. I say he is, especially since the Sixers also have Elton Brand. Brand's signing will free Iguodala up even more going forward -- no longer does he need to be the primary, err, only scoring option. Now he can let the game come to him and put his all-around ability on display.

If the Sixers lock Iggy down, they will be good. Very good in the East. They now have a starting lineup of Miller & Iguodala in the backcourt, with a young and blossoming Thaddeus Young at SF, Brand at PF, and Dalembert at C. Only the Celtics and Pistons (and possibly the Magic) have better starting 5's in the East. The fact that they can bring microwaves Lou Williams and Willie Green, and hard-fouling rebound machine Reggie Evans off the bench could push them over the top in the JV conference. The fact they are much younger than the Celtics and Pistons makes their long-term prospects even juicier.

Philly, if you're listening: bone up and pay the man, you won't regret it.