2009 NBA Finals Preview

I am about to step into the realm of NBA blogger redundancy. Over the next few days, every armchair expert in the blogosphere will be detailing his/her failproof assessment of how the Finals will be won and lost. Nevertheless, I'll add to the e-pile of meaningless analyses by giving my own two cents. Here goes, position by position (Note: with the way the NBA is played today in terms of zone defenses & double-teams, position-by-position analysis is kind of silly but it still provides the best basis for player comparisons)...

Point Guard: Rafer Alston/Anthony Johnson vs. Derek Fisher/Shannon Brown/Jordan Farmar

Neither group is among the NBA elite, which begs the question: does a team really need an upper-echelon point guard to win a championship? I did some research, and the answer is often times "no." In fact, the league's three best true point guards haven't won a title yet (CP3, Nash, & Deron Williams). What a championship team does need is a serviceable point guard who knows his role and doesn't make dumb mistakes (see all Bulls point guards of the 90's and Laker point guards earlier this decade).

The Lakers and Magic both have role players for point guards, but Alston is the only one in this group who has proven that he can score 20+ any given game in these playoffs. The Lakers' most visible weakness during these playoffs has been their defense at the point of attack and have been burned perpetually by quick (or savvy in the case of Billups) point guards. Sure, Derek Fisher has the experience and will knock down a couple of momentum-changing shots and should have an easier time chasing around Rafer Alston (or, rather, monitoring him on the three point line) than he did Williams, Brooks, or Billups. However, the Magic have a decisive advantage at the point guard spot in my opinion.

Advantage: Magic by a decent margin.

Shooting Guard: Courtney Lee/Mikael Pietrus vs. Kobe Bryant/Sasha Vujacic

Lee has to be the best player in the NBA with a girl's first name. I love the way he plays and has been the x-factor in a few games during these playoffs. Pietrus did a terrific job of holding Lebron James to 38.5 ppg in the Eastern Conference Finals (sorry, I had to throw that in after the TNT crew consistently pointed out how tough he was making things on King James). In all seriousness, both of these players bring athleticism, three-point shooting, and defensive toughness to the Magic's backcourt. They are perfect role players for a championship-caliber team.

I'll limit the superlatives in describing Bryant and take a plain vanilla, fact-based approach. Kobe is the best shooting guard in the world. He has already played in four NBA Finals and won three championships. He is the most competitive man playing this sport, and the most feared late-game shooter on the planet. Vujacic and his other backups are terrible, but that doesn't matter since Kobe will be playing 40+ minutes per game this series.

Somewhere, Dahntay Jones is smiling

Advantage: Lakers in a landslide.

Small Forward: Hedo Turkoglu/Mikael Pietrus vs. Trevor Ariza/Luke Walton/Lamar Odom
Turkoglu has been nails in the fourth quarter during the regular season and in the playoffs. In late-game situations, he seems to always come up with a big bucket or assist. In fact, he averaged more assists/game than Alston against Cleveland in the playoffs as a whole. Turkoglu created mismatches against Cleveland when Lebron wasn't guarding him, using his rare combination of size (6'10), outside shooting (1.5 threes/game), and vision (6.7 apg) to score or set up teammates. Pietrus was mentioned earlier in the shooting guard analysis, but with the Magic's lack of depth (8-man rotation), he gets many minutes at the three. He's Orlando's best spark off the bench and a versatile defender. I'm expecting big minutes out of him to match up with Kobe or Ariza.

Trevor Ariza has been a media darling this postseason. Adding a three-point shot to his already-imposing defensive presence and athleticism, he has been the perfect complement to Bryant (namely because Kobe doesn't have to expend as much energy on the defensive end as in years past). Odom is one of the biggest enigmas in the league, no-showing one night and looking like the most talented player on the court the next. His back problems have been well-chronicled, but a little cortizone should do the trick this series. After all, it is the NBA Finals. A lot will be discovered about Odom's heart and competitiveness in this series, and I see him doing a better job on Turkoglu/Lewis than Cleveland did. Luke Walton will get limited (but valuable) minutes in this series with his headiness coming at a premium in crucial junctures of the games.

Advantage: Toss-up. I like L.A.'s depth, but Turkoglu has been the most consistent player in this group.

The Pride of Turkey

Power Forward: Rashard Lewis vs. Pau Gasol

There is nothing "power"-ful about Rashard Lewis, but he could create some problems in this series. He has been lights-out in the clutch, upstaging Lebron with his late-game heroics in game 1 and game 4. The Lakers will be forced out of their traditional gameplan that includes heavy minutes with Bynum and Gasol on the court at the same time. Neither of these Laker bigs can stay with Lewis on the perimeter, and I'm guessing Jackson will have to adjust his strategy after Lewis drains a few uncontested threes. This should be the most intriguing chess match of the series, as Lewis also won't be able to match up with Gasol or Bynum down low.

Gasol is the league's most skilled 7-footer outside of Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki. He is adept around the basket with either hand, can put the ball on the floor, shoots the 15-footer efficiently, and is an excellent passer. For what he lacks in brawn, he makes up for in skill and finesse. If the Magic put Dwight Howard on him, Howard is sure to get in early foul trouble. If the Magic put Lewis on him, Gasol will score at ease in the post. If Gortat guards him, all of the above apply. The Lakers would be foolish if they avoid Gasol in the post like they did for much of the Denver series as the Magic clearly have nobody (outside of Howard, who the Magic will be protecting from foul trouble) that can even pretend to guard him. This is probably the biggest matchup nightmare for either team in the series.

Advantage: Lakers.

Center: Dwight Howard/Marcin Gortat vs. Andrew Bynum/DJ Mbenga/Josh Powell

Howard is an absolute beast. He drove, elbowed, and dunked his way to forty points in the series-clinching victory agains the Cavs. Illgauskas looked like Robert Swift trying to guard him. I listed three Laker centers, including two who rarely see the court, because Bynum will be in foul trouble early in the first quarter of every game. Phil will be forced to dig deep into his bench and play hack-a-Dwight during parts of this series. While the Lakers may be the best-equipped team (aside from Boston) to guard Howard, there is no stopping him. In fact, there probably isn't even slowing him down. The only hope the Lakers have here is that Van Gundy and his band of perimeter shooters will forget about their stud in the middle. That, or he'll be watching the game from the bench with foul trouble.

Andrew Bynum hasn't looked very good this postseason, on or off the court. He has showed little desire to block out or play sound defense, opting instead to wait in the paint for rebounds and chase blocked shots. He will look terrible in this series. If Bynum continues to watch rebounds instead of blocking out (which I think he will), Howard will eat him for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. If the Nuggets could dominate the offensive glass against L.A., what will Howard do? Scary thought for Laker fans. The Lakers can take some comfort in knowing that their bench is loaded with big bodies to foul Dwight. A foul-fest is exactly what I foresee in this series, and the Lakers should hope that it results in early foul trouble for Howard.

Advantage: Magic by a mile.

Keys to Winning -- Orlando:

The Magic's keys to winning are quite simple & obvious. For Orlando to win, it must keep Dwight Howard out of foul trouble. That means keeping him on Bynum and in position to challenge shots without fouling. The Magic's weakside help defenders (other than Howard) must do a better job than they did against Cleveland, because L.A. has more than one player that must be defended.

The Magic also have to knock down the three-point shot with regularity. They have lived & died by the three all season, and this series will be no different. If Orlando can hit three-point shots with consistency, the Lakers will be forced to play honest defense and leave Howard in one-on-one situations in the post. Nobody on the Lakers (or in the league for that matter) is strong enough to keep Howard out of the paint by himself. Howard needs to have a few 20-20 games for the Magic to win this series.

Keys to Winning -- Los Angeles:

The Lakers' keys to winning are also quite simple, and they revolve around Dwight Howard. L.A. must get Howard into early foul trouble. If they can do this, the Magic will become one-dimensional with the three-point shot as their only source of scoring. The Lakers have the quickness & depth to play the Magic on the three-point line if they aren't forced to double-team Howard.

The Lakers also must be disciplined on the defensive glass. Denver's offensive rebounding is what made the Western Conference Finals a series. Possession after possession, the Lakers' bigs turned their heads and watched the ball coming off the rim instead of blocking out. This same mistake cannot be made against Orlando, as Howard feasts on putback opportunities. If the Lakers are smart, they will put two guys on Howard's body on every shot attempt.

Lastly, the Lakers have to keep the tempo up. The Magic only play 8 guys, while the Lakers prefer a 10- or 11-man rotation. L.A. must push the ball at every opportunity and get easy fast break buckets. They should trap and apply full-court pressure for the entire game, as Alston is sometimes turnover-prone and Anthony Johnson doesn't have his wheels anymore. Six guys will be playing 30+ minutes for the Magic, and 7-8 (Johnson and Gortat) will be used sparingly. A fast-paced game will tire out the Magic and play into the Lakers' favor.

Additional Thoughts/Analysis:

This should be a very interesting series. One of these teams is going to have to change their strategy, as the Magic like to put Dwight down low and play four-wide and the Lakers prefer power-ball with two seven-footers on the court. If the Magic can make their threes, the Lakers will have to respond by subbing on of the seven-footers. If the Magic miss their threes, the Magic will have to insert size into their lineup, an area that is a glaring weakness outside of Howard.

Cleveland lost to Orlando because nobody outside of James (who was asked to do everything on both ends of the floor) could cover Turkoglu or Lewis. While Howard's box scores stood out, those two guys were the difference-makers in the series. L.A. is much better equipped to match up with Turkoglu & Lewis. Between Kobe, Ariza, Odom, and to a certain extent Walton & Vujacic, the Lakers have the range and athleticism to give Lewis & Turkoglu fits.

On the other side of the ball, the Magic have a trio of defenders that will be charged with covering Kobe. Pietrus, Lee, and Turkoglu all offer distinct defensive skillsets to slow Bryant down. Lee has more quickness than anyone who guarded Bryant against Denver. Pietrus is your classic athletic defender a la Trevor Ariza. Turkoglu is too slow to keep in front of Bryant, but can use his body and length to alter some shots. At the end of the day, Kobe will be Kobe and probably average close to thirty in the series. If he chooses to absorb double teams and be a passer as he did in games five & six versus Denver, the Lakers will benefit greatly. If he chooses to be the hero and forces difficult shots, it could be a long series for L.A.

Overall Prediction:

The Lakers have too much depth and versatility for the Magic to make this a seven-game series. I foresee Orlando winning two games: one by virtue of a dominant performance by Howard and one by virtue of a barrage of three-point shots by the Magic's perimeter players. As discussed above, the Lakers have a wide range of weapons that can be deployed and have peaked at the right time during these playoffs. Although L.A. has shown a tendency to become complacent, I think they'll come out with a fire as they try to avenge their 2008 Finals defeat. If by some miracle this series does go seven games, I like the Lakers' chances in Staples Center and with all their big-game experience. Lakers in six.

2009 Free Agents

With the much-anticipated summer of 2010 still more than a year away, I did a little research on who would be available this summer. Below are my picks for the top five UNRESTRICTED free agents (in no particular order):

- BEN GORDON:

The positives - We all know what B.G. can do: score. And he does it well. Unlike many big-time scorers, however, Gordon seems to save it for when it matters most. Ever since he came into the league, he has been amongst the leaders in fourth quarter scoring, and he didn't disappoint in this year's playoffs. B.G. dropped 40-plus in a back-and-forth game two against the Celtics. His fourth quarter heroics were dwarfed by Ray Allen's game-winning three, but they weren't overlooked by people like myself. Dude's a gamer.

The negatives - We have also come to know B.G.'s shortcomings. At 6'3", you'd like him to be more of a distributor (3.0 APG for his career). Although he's stout for his height, he isn't exactly a lockdown defender and can be taken advantage of in the post by bigger guards. In reality, outside of scoring, Gordon doesn't do much to fill up a box score.

The good fits - Utah, Phoenix, Chicago, any bad team where he can shoot 20+ times per game.

I think Gordon's game is better suited for the open court style of play that the West offers. Utah is going to lose a lot of scoring if Boozer packs his bags, and Gordon's defensive shortcomings could be masked by the physicality of Deron Williams. In Phoenix, B.G. could continue in his shoot-first ways with Nash dishing the rock, and Gentry's commitment to NO defense would be ideal for this volume shooter. Chicago grew up in the playoffs (despite the narrow loss), but they need to continue to surround the unselfish Derrick Rose with shooters. With Hinrich's departure probable, keeping Gordon could be a priority for Management. I don't think I need to explain why B.G. would flourish for a subpar team.

Has B.G. had enough in Chi-Town?

- ANDRE MILLER
The positives - Miller brings all the intangibles you want out of your point guard: leadership, poise, unselfishness. He's pretty physical for his size and a good passer. He's an accurate foul shooter in late-game situations and has been durable throughout his career. He's always amongst the league leaders in steals and rebounds well for a point guard (4.5 RPG in 08-09).

The negatives - Miller turned 33 this spring. He probably doesn't make much sense for a rebuilding team, as his window of peak play is behind him. He also has a hard time keeping up with younger, quicker point guards (e.g. Rondo, Paul, Parker, Harris). For a point guard, he is a dreadful three point shooter (28% in 08-09). As such, any team looking to pick him up needs to be equipped with shooters to surround him with.

The good fits - Portland, LA Lakers.
Miller would complement Portland's young guns perfectly and would provide veteran experience that the team is currently lacking. With Rudy Fernandez and the impending return of Martell Webster, the Blazers have the shooters in place that Miller needs. Miller could create more off the dribble than D-Fish, which would take some pressure off Kobe. I don't think the Lakers would be concerned with Miller's age, as they have the pieces in place to compete for NBA Championships NOW.


- CARLOS BOOZER (Player Option, but does anyone doubt he will take it?)
The positives - Boozer is a tireless offensive rebounder and a proven scorer. He has a good work ethic and is a pretty heady player (courtesy of Coach K). Boozer's ability to hit the 18-footer with regularity causes matchup nightmares, and his quickness enables him to defend the pick-and-roll.

The negatives - C.B. has a tough time guarding taller players and doesn't block many shots for a power forward. He has been somewhat injury-prone in his short career. Clearly, the Jazz see him as expendible as they have all but turned over the keys to Paul Millsap.

The good fits - New Jersey, Atlanta.
New Jersey has its center of the future in Brook Lopez (sigh), but they lack consistent play from the power forward position. If Carter is shipped, Boozer and Harris would be a good scoring tandem. In Atlanta, Boozer would enable Josh Smith to play more minutes at his natural position (small forward), Horford could slide to Center, and Zaza Pachulia could slide down the bench. Although Horford is a decent scorer, it is not his natural strength. Boozer would take some pressure off Joe Johnson and Horford could focus on being a beast at the defensive end and on the boards.


RASHEED WALLACE
The positives - Sheed can stretch the defense with his three-point shooting. He's also a very underrated defender and a decent rebounder. When he is focused, there is only one player in the league who can stop him from scoring from the mid-post (Garnett). Plus, he will put fans in the seats with his childish antics.

The negatives - Often times, I wonder if Sheed even cares. He is one of the most gifted players in the league, but seems content to stand on the three-point line most of the time. His antics, while they draw headlines (good or bad), can be a huge distraction. Even though he has great touch from the floor, his free throw shooting has been suspect at times.

The good fits - San Antonio, Dallas, Golden State.
San Antonio's window is closing quickly, but Sheed would fit in nicely with what they try to do at the defensive end. His ability to stretch the defense would give Duncan more room to operate in the post. Dallas is one- or two- pieces away from being great, and Sheed could be just the lift they need. Just make sure he isn't rooming with Josh Howard on road trips. Don Nelson has shown the ability to harness the energy of hot-headed players (see Stephen Jackson). In Golden State, Sheed could play the uptempo style and fire 5-7 threes per game without getting benched.

-LAMAR ODOM
The positives - Odom possesses the rare combination of size, athleticism, and court vision that GM's drool over. He probably has the best handles of any 6'10 player in the league, and is one of the better rebounders in the game. Odom can create matchup nightmares when he is playing at the three spot, towering over his defenders. L.O. has a great touch around the basket.

The negatives - At times, Odom disappears on the court. The rap sheet says that he takes plays off, which I can't necessarily argue with. Odom is a mediocre (at best) outside shooter, and his free throw shooting is especially a problem late in games. When playing the three spot, he can create congestion on the court as he is best suited around the paint. His point guard mentality can lead to careless turnovers at times.

The good fits - Cleveland, Houston.
L.O. would flourish playing alongside King James. He is a significant upgrade from Varejao/B. Wallace at the offensive end, and would add the athleticism that the Cavs need (outside of James, of course). Odom does well in situations where he plays the second- (or third) fiddle on offense. Houston is another team that needs to get more athletic. They already have guards who can knock down the three and power forwards who can step out and hit jumpers. If Artest leaves this summer, Houston will need a versatile player like Odom at both ends of the floor.


Didn't make my list: Mike Bibby (yawn), Ason Kidd (too old), Allen Iverson (cancerous), Antonio McDyess (too old), Ron Artest (too crazy), Shawn Marion (I think he'll stay in TOR), Al Harrington (unimpressed), Jermaine O'Neal (too injury-prone)

Profit-Sharing in the NBA?

In making my daily visit to FreeDarko, I came across this tasteful morsel (FreeDarko Post). The post in reference was aimed at analyzing Lebron's interest in playing overseas and the potential impact it could have on the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). It got me contemplating the NBA and its current compensation structure and how this structure could be revamped in the near future.

The fact NBA stars Lebron, Kobe, & DWade have shown interest (regardless of their sincerity) in playing overseas has to have NBA heads talking. In an era where "Show me the Money" is a prevaling theme and stars (e.g. Lebron) are as much aspiring businessmen as they are aspiring NBA legends, this talk should come as no surprise. Sure, the Olympics are here, making the obligatory "I'd play overseas" statement en vogue. I get that. But these stars aren't idiots, or they're at least getting advice from people who aren't idiots. There is a load of untapped money & fame overseas, and basketball is quickly gaining popularity in these markets.

The Motivations of Superstars have Changed over the Years

If Josh Childress can become "the highest-paid player in Euroleague history," making ~$7M/year, what kind of money would be thrown at Lebron or Kobe? Lebron half-jokingly threw out an asking price of $50M/yr, but is that number really as ridiculous as it sounds? I'm not so sure. I am sure that there are international teams that would be willing to outbid NBA franchises, with salary cap limitations in place and all. Who's to say Lebron the businessman wouldn't take an offer of, say, $40M plus some sort of ownership stakes to play in China? If not James, how about a Lamar Odom-type player? A player like Odom could never be the face of the NBA but he could be the face of Croatian basketball or its equivalent. If a Croatian team threw $15M, profit-sharing, and endless endorsement possibilities at Odom, would he take it? I don't know if Odom would, but I'm fairly certain some players would.

Is this where international basketball is headed? In recent years, the migration of international stars to the NBA has been the trend. As interest grows overseas, who's to say the trend won't be NBA stars migrating to international leagues? While the NBA still has the premier competition, competition is no longer the primary movitator for all professional athletes. I could particularly see veterans who had reached the pinnacle of NBA fame & fortune making the move overseas. It would only take the movement of a few players (e.g. Lebron and/or Kobe) for an exodus of sorts to gain momentum.

The Chinese Love Them Some Kobe

So, assuming more players follow Childress' lead and move overseas, how would the NBA respond? If it were only a few players and none were All-Star caliber talents, Stern probably wouldn't bat an eyelash. If it were a handful of players and one or more of those players were cogs in the NBA's marketing machine, Stern would be sweating bullets. As soon as Greece, Italy, China, and Germany start flashing the dough, Stern and his cronies will have to take a hard look at the NBA's current compensation structure. This will be an absolute must-do if the NBA wants to continue to monopolize the world's best basketball talent.

In observing the Stern regime, I'm fairly certain he won't stand pat if basketball's balance of power begins to shift away from the U.S. Stern, in spite of all of his annoying tendencies, is an innovator of sorts. To date, he has embraced the globalization movement wholeheartedly -- and while you could argue that MLB had an influx of foreign players long before the NBA did, basketball is now leaps and bounds ahead of its American sports counterparts in terms of international appeal growth rate. It should be noted, however, that this was a calculated embrace. The progressive approach Stern has taken with regards to globalization has been aimed at growing the NBA's appeal (and revenue) overseas. I don't think he will be so eager to embrace the globalization of basketball if international leagues begin reaping the benefits at the expense of his NBA.

Without totally destroying the salary cap system in place, profit-sharing could be a solution. Lebron and others have already shown interest in participating in team ownership, so why not?While in the past I had been an advocate of the CBA, I'm beginning to think it may be too restrictive. The argument that players are overpaid can certainly be made, but foreign leagues (without salary caps or profit-sharing restrictions) will be able to overpay them even more. Furthermore, NBA franchises generate enormous amounts of revenue from ticket & merchandise sales. While marketing has improved and team management & coaches should be compensated for assembling & developing talented, cohesive, winning rosters it's hard to argue that the players are not primarily responsible for these revenues. Take the Cavs as an example: aside from winning the lottery and making the biggest no-brainer #1 selection ever, they have done virtually nothing to improve the franchise. In fact, they have probably been one of the worst-run franchises in the NBA in the past few years. Lebron has quite literally carried that franchise on his back. Players like Lebron transcend the game and sell merchandise, tickets, and the game's overall popularity on their own.

In any other type of American business, the compensation for Lebron-types would be more closely related to the overall success of the businesses they were employed by. They would get commissions, bonuses, and/or huge allotments of stock options. All of these forms of compensation reward the employee (or player) when their contributions positively impact the business's bottom line. Rather than adding variable (and minimal) compensation to be paid if the team makes the playoffs or wins the championship, couldn't some fraction of player compensation be tied to ticket sales, jersey sales, and overall profitability? Maybe not for all players, but at least for the players with the "franchise" label?

I realize this could get tricky really fast. Employing a profit-sharing system in the NBA would inevitably expose the league to the problems experienced by the MLB. Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago would have bigger bargaining chips for the superstars due to the relative profit potential advantages in those markets. Small-market teams like the Trailblazers wouldn't be able to rely upon good management alone to build competitive rosters. The NBA has kept its structure intact to avoid these types of disparities. To be quite honest (even as a Laker fan), I'm not sure I'd be happy if profit-sharing brought these inequities with it.

So what, if anything, should be done if NBA players start bailing to play overseas? Would the assurance of the best players remaining in the league outweigh the consequences of profit-sharing? I'm torn. If this posting hasn't thoroughly confused you, I'd love to hear your thoughts...